💵 💴 💶BTC Indicators Raise Warning Signs 💴 💶

The surge in Bitcoin’s open interest could be a primary factor preventing it from reaching the $90,000 price mark in the short term. According to CryptoQuant data, the futures market saw a $16 billion increase in open interest over the past week, indicating a significant rise in leverage. As of this writing, BTC’s open interest stands at $25 billion, the highest level since August 2022. Open interest tracks the total number of (options and futures) contracts that have not yet been closed. During a price rally, rising open interest is seen as a bullish signal. However, if an asset’s price rises too quickly, high open interest may signal potential instability.

Natural Gas Gains Strength as Oil Weakens

Oil prices faced further downward pressure yesterday. ICE Brent closed the day down by nearly 2.8%, falling below $72 per barrel. The strong dollar trend, ongoing since the U.S. elections, has had a negative impact not only on the oil market but also on the entire commodities complex. Additionally, prompt time spreads for Brent and WTI futures have recently dropped, approaching contango (a condition where forward prices are higher than near-term prices), indicating an oversupply in the physical market. The oil balance through 2025 shows a surplus, assuming OPEC+ removes production cuts as planned and no dramatic change occurs in Iran’s export volumes.

GLOBAL MARKETS

A sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields has led to a decline in Asian markets as investors remain concerned ahead of the U.S. consumer inflation data, which could offer clues about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Short-term Treasury yields reached their highest levels since July following a market holiday closure, with the dollar reaching a three-month high against the yen. Yields are rising with expectations of fiscal deficit and government debt increase amid assumptions that, under former President Donald Trump’s leadership, taxes would decrease while tariffs would rise.

Technical Overview

DXY

The Dollar Index (DXY) is strongly recovering at the start of the week, continuing its upward trend. Finding strength at the critical support level of 100.68, the DXY is expected to maintain its upward momentum as long as it stays above this support. Especially as it trades above the 106.68 level, upward movements are anticipated to accelerate. Buyers are observed to be dominant in this area, and the index is likely to advance toward resistance levels.

Resistances: 104.76 / 106.00 / 107.35
Supports: 104.02 / 102.26 / 100.68

BTC/USD

Bitcoin has reached the resistance of the descending channel structure and successfully broke through with significant volume. This resistance zone is crucial for BTC and could open the doors to a new bullish trend in the cryptocurrency markets. If Bitcoin manages to sustain its price above this strategic level, we may see bullish momentum for Bitcoin and other altcoins, triggering a rally that gains traction in the market. Therefore, the current levels represent a critical turning point that should be closely monitored.

Resistances: 68,350 / 71,927 / 75,000
Supports: 66,148 / 64,290 / 60,000

ETH/USD

ETHUSD continues to trade within the descending channel pattern, remaining under pressure. After losing its horizontal major support, ETHUSD is now priced around the 2400 level. If selling deepens, the critical support level to watch is 2100, where buyers are expected to strengthen. On the other hand, for the upward trend in ETH to continue, it needs to close decisively above the major resistance at 2922 with strong volume. If this resistance is breached, a new uptrend could begin.

Resistances: 2565 / 3000 / 3364
Supports: 2200 / 1700 / 1052

NASDAQ

The index, continuing its upward trend, is pricing above the 20,635 resistance level, maintaining its bullish momentum. In the event of potential pullbacks, two critical support levels stand out. Firstly, the 19,600 level serves as an important support zone in the short term. In case of a deeper pullback, the 18,400 level should be monitored as a strong buying area. Buyers are expected to step in at these levels.

Resistances: 20,635 / 22,400 / 23,000
Supports: 18,913 / 18,670 / 17,200

BRENT

Brent crude has shown medium-term recovery and regained its previous channel structure, continuing its upward trend. It has surpassed the 76.98 resistance zone, and as long as it holds above this level, it is expected to rise towards the 80.00 – 82.00 range. In the event of a pullback, the critical support level to monitor is the 72.37 zone, where buyers are expected to become active. Maintaining this support is crucial for the continuation of the trend.

Resistances: 74.45 / 76.98 / 79.84
Supports: 72.37 / 71.00 / 70.50

EURUSD

EUR/USD successfully broke through its ascending channel resistance and has been trading above both horizontal and channel resistance. It held above the 1.0983 resistance zone and reached our target of 1.114. However, facing selling pressure around 1.11, it lost this zone, creating a “deviation” and leading to a pullback. Now, the critical support level to watch for EUR/USD is 1.0983. Maintaining this level is crucial for stabilizing the price.

Resistances: 1.114 / 1.130 / 1.135
Supports: 1.098 / 1.088 / 1.080

XAUUSD

Gold surpassed the 2,742 resistance zone, reaching a new all-time high and heading strongly towards the 2,800 level. In this uptrend, the 2,745 level stands out as a key support; as long as gold stays above this level, it could maintain its upward momentum. As it moves towards the 2,800 target, investors should closely watch whether gold continues to trade above this support zone.

Resistances: 2800 / 2850 / 2910
Supports: 2740 / 2690 / 2625

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