💵 💴 💶Fed Confirms Forecast of Slower and Limited Rate Cuts💴 💶

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) implemented a 25-basis-point rate cut as expected. This marks a total of 100 basis points of reductions since September. However, the Fed signals much slower and gradual rate cuts in the future. For 2025, the new baseline expectation is now a 50-basis-point cut, based on the median of individual projections—down from the 100-basis-point cut predicted in September.

Fed’s ‘Hawkish Rate Cut’ Hits US Markets

Despite the anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut decision, the outcome for markets was negative. The S&P 500 index dropped by 178 points, the Nasdaq Composite ended down 3.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 1,100 points, marking its tenth consecutive negative close. The possibility of the Fed halting its rate cut campaign and keeping rates high for a longer period has significantly dampened investor risk appetite. Cleveland Fed President Hammack opposed maintaining the rate range at 4.50%-4.75%, breaking the unanimity of the vote.

BTC DROPS BELOW $100,000

Bitcoin, which reached historic highs since Trump’s election, briefly dropped below $100,000 after Fed Chair Powell stated that the Fed has no interest in participating in high-level Bitcoin stockpiling initiatives by the government

Technical Overview

DXY

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to trade within a descending wedge on the daily chart. Currently priced at 106.39, the index is holding above the 105.68 horizontal support level, suggesting the uptrend may persist for a while longer. If the trend continues, potential resistance levels are 107.34 and 110. A strong breakout above 107.34 could push the index towards 112.

Resistances: 108.00 / 110.00 / 115.76
Supports: 105.68 / 104.38 / 103.46

BTC/USD

Bitcoin’s uptrend has regained momentum, with the price currently at $97,691. Following recent declines, recovery efforts are ongoing. The key level to watch is $95,540. As long as this support level holds, Bitcoin may continue its climb towards $108,995. However, losing the $95,540 support could trigger a bearish trend, potentially pulling the price down to $88,362.

Resistances: 108,985 / 118,500 / 123,550
Supports: 95,500 / 88,362 / 83,365

ETH/USD

Ethereum has reached its expected target of $4,086 before facing a sharp pullback. It is now trading at $3,673. The critical level to monitor is $3,539, which acts as horizontal support. As long as the price holds above this level, the outlook remains positive. However, if Ethereum closes below $3,539, the price could slide further to $3,110.

Resistances: 4,086 / 4,782 / 5,144
Supports: 3,539 / 3,110 / 2,808

NASDAQ

The Nasdaq index continues its uptrend within a rising channel on the weekly chart. However, a wedge formation within the channel has rejected the price at the resistance level, with the index currently trading at 21,368. If the 21,700 level is surpassed and maintained, the index could break the main channel resistance and extend its rally to 22,500. On the downside, breaking below the critical 20,695 support may invite selling pressure, potentially pulling the index down to 20,000.

Resistances: 23,117 / 24,380 / 26,200
Supports: 20,694 / 18,788 / 17,291

BRENT

Brent crude has shown mid-term recovery, regaining its previously lost channel structure. Having surpassed the 76.98 resistance level, the price is likely to rise towards the 80.00–82.00 range if it maintains this level. Key support stands at 72.37, where buyers are expected to step in to sustain the trend.

Resistances: 76.15 / 85.84 / 95.53
Supports: 70.17 / 69.00 / 67.80

EURUSD

The Euro formed a double top at 1.11 and entered a downtrend. Losing the 1.10 support led to a pullback to the lower channel boundary at 1.07. After breaking the rising support level, the Euro slid to 1.046. At this critical support level, buyers are likely to re-enter the market. However, if the support is broken, the Euro may face deeper declines, potentially reaching 1.099. Price action at these levels will be pivotal in determining the next directional move.

Resistances: 1.0575 / 1.1043 / 1.1213
Supports: 1.0180 / 0.9936 / 0.9542

XAUUSD

Gold recovered from the 2608 level and successfully reached the anticipated target. With the breakout of the descending channel resistance, gold managed to rise back above the 2710 resistance level. As long as it maintains its position above this resistance level, it is expected to sustain its upward momentum and preserve the potential to rise toward the 2756 region.

Resistances: 2757 / 2790 / 2800
Supports: 2608 / 2622 / 2590

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