💵 💴 💶GLOBAL MARKETS💵 💴 💶

If Donald Trump Becomes President, Who Will Be the SEC Chair?

Dan Gallagher, Robinhood’s CLO, is being considered as a potential candidate to replace SEC Chair Gary Gensler in the event of a Donald Trump presidency. Gallagher has long been critical of the SEC’s approach to cryptocurrency regulations and advocates for more transparent rules. Trump has strongly criticized SEC Chair Gensler, stating that one of his first actions as president would be to remove Gensler from office. These criticisms have gained momentum as the SEC’s regulatory pressure on the cryptocurrency sector has increased. According to CNBC, Gallagher is seen as a potential candidate for SEC Chair under a Trump administration. A report by Politico also highlights Gallagher as a contender to replace Gensler, gaining significant support among Republicans and cryptocurrency proponents. Gallagher’s previous role as an SEC commissioner and his current legal position at Robinhood make him a strong candidate for this role.

ECB Interest Rate Cut Not as Certain as the Market Thinks

We expect the ECB to implement a 25-basis point interest rate cut next week, but we believe a hawkish surprise cannot be completely ruled out. Recall the ECB’s September meeting press conference and the official ECB messages within two weeks following that meeting: the ECB was quite content with reducing monetary policy tightness at a very slow pace, meaning interest rate cuts would be gradual and measured. The October meeting would come too soon for the ECB to see any fundamental changes in its growth and inflation assessments. The December meeting, however, was clearly the preferred one for the next interest rate cut, along with updated macro projections. In short, a three-month pace for interest rate cuts was set after the September meeting.

Saudi Arabia Raises Prices for Asian Buyers

Oil prices eased this morning as new developments in the Middle East are anticipated. It is reported that U.S. President Joe Biden is trying to dissuade Israel from attacking Iran’s oil facilities (following Iran’s missile attack last week). According to OPEC’s latest monthly oil market report, Iran produces around 3.3 million barrels of oil per day, and any disruption in this supply could create a shortage in the oil market. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia raised official selling prices (OSP) for November shipments for Asian buyers, while lowering prices for European and U.S. buyers. Aramco raised the premium for Arab Light crude for Asian buyers by $0.90 per barrel, bringing it to $2.20. The market had expected a smaller increase of $0.65 per barrel. On the other hand, prices for all oil grades for November shipments to Europe were reduced by $0.90 per barrel, likely in an effort to regain market share in Europe. The varying prices for different regions might reflect expectations of local imbalances in the oil market.

Technical Overview

DXY

The Dollar Index continues the week with a bullish momentum. The DXY, which found support at the 100.68 level, is showing signs of recovery. As long as it remains priced above the 100.68 support zone, its upward momentum is expected to continue.

Resistance levels: 102.26 / 103.23 / 104.02
Support levels: 100.68 / 98.00 / 97.00

BTC/USD

Recoveries in BTCUSD continue. The price is bouncing back from the MA50 level, which acts as a buying zone at 60,037, and is continuing its trend to test the channel resistance again. The 66,150 level emerges as the key resistance area to watch.

Resistance levels: 64,290 / 66,148 / 68,350
Support levels: 60,000 / 56,600 / 52,685

ETH/USD

ETHUSD broke its rising channel and continues to face selling pressure. It is currently priced at the 2,600 level, having lost its horizontal major support. The key support to monitor is 2,200, which is where buyers are expected to be stronger. To continue its upward trend, ETH needs to close above the major resistance level of 2,922 with strong volume.

Resistance Levels: 2,565 / 3,000 / 3,364
Support Levels: 2,200 / 1,700 / 1,052

NASDAQ

The NASDAQ100 Index continues the week with a bearish trend. The index, which has approached the 19,900 resistance zone, is likely to see further pullbacks as long as it continues to price below this resistance level. The key support zone to watch is at the 18,490 level.

Resistance levels: 19,900 / 20,000 / 20,985
Support levels: 18,913 / 18,500 / 18,164

BRENT

Brent oil is showing medium-term recoveries. Having regained its channel structure, Brent continues its upward trend. If it can reclaim the 76.98 area, it will likely price in the 80.00 – 82.00 range. The key support level to watch is 72.37.

Resistance Levels: 74.45 / 76.98 / 79.84
Support Levels: 72.37 / 71.00 / 70.50

EURUSD

EURUSD broke its rising channel resistance, managing to hold above both the horizontal resistance and channel resistance. It stayed above the 1.0983 resistance zone and reached our target resistance level of 1.114. After facing selling pressure and losing the 1.11 level, it saw a pullback. The key support level to monitor is 1.0983.

Resistance Levels: 1.114 / 1.130 / 1.135
Support Levels: 1.098 / 1.088 / 1.080

XAUUSD

XAUUSD has broken the rising channel structure with significant volume and is now pricing above the resistance. Gold, forming an ascending triangle structure, is expected to continue its upward trend with the breakout of the descending resistance.

Resistance levels: 2,690 / 2,720 / 2,750
Support levels: 2,644 / 2,585 / 2,527