💵 💴 💶Market Analysis: A Hawkish Rate Cut💴 💶

The cryptocurrency markets experienced a highly volatile week, with Bitcoin losing 10% and Ethereum dropping by as much as 20%. In the United States, a 25 basis point rate cut was implemented as expected this week. While such a move would typically have a positive effect on markets, Powell’s subsequent statements had the opposite impact. His hawkish stance, projecting only two rate cuts in 2025 instead of four, sent bearish waves across both equity and cryptocurrency markets.

U.S. Natural Gas Prices Rise for Fourth Consecutive Session

U.S. natural gas prices rose for the fourth consecutive session. Weekly storage data showed a decline, and expectations of a cold start to January raised hopes for increased heating fuel demand. According to weekly data, U.S. gas storage levels decreased by 125 billion cubic feet last week. While this is slightly below the market’s expectation of a 127 billion cubic feet decline, it significantly exceeds the five-year average decrease of 92 billion cubic feet. As of December 13, total gas storage reached 3.62 trillion cubic feet, 0.6% above last year’s level and 3.8% higher than the five-year average.

Strong Dollar Triggers Oil Sales

Crude oil prices continued to decline, with NYMEX WTI falling below $70/barrel and ICE Brent dropping below $73/barrel yesterday. The oil market has been under pressure for the second consecutive trading day due to the strong dollar.

Technical Overview

DXY

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to trade within a descending wedge on the daily chart. Currently priced at 106.39, the index is holding above the 105.68 horizontal support level, suggesting the uptrend may persist for a while longer. If the trend continues, potential resistance levels are 107.34 and 110. A strong breakout above 107.34 could push the index towards 112.

Resistances: 108.00 / 110.00 / 115.76
Supports: 105.68 / 104.38 / 103.46

BTC/USD

The recovery process in Bitcoin continues to gain strength. Currently, it is trading at $94,691. Following yesterday’s declines, the recovery movements are ongoing. At this point, the critical level to watch is $87,956. As long as Bitcoin stays above this support level, the upward trend is likely to continue towards the $108,995 level. However, if the $95,540 support is lost, a potential downtrend could push the price down to $88,362.

Resistance levels: 108,985 / 118,500 / 123,550
Support levels: 95,000 / 88,362 / 83,365

ETH/USD

In Ethereum, the anticipated target of $4,086 was reached, followed by a sharp pullback. Currently, it is trading at $3,256. At this point, the critical level to watch closely is $3,110, which serves as a horizontal support point. As long as there is no significant close below this level, the outlook will remain positive. However, if a close occurs below this support level, a potential downtrend could push the price down to $2,808.

Resistance levels: 3,539 / 4,086 / 4,782
Support levels: 3,110 / 2,808 / 2,134

NASDAQ

The Nasdaq index continues its uptrend within a rising channel on the weekly chart. However, a wedge formation within the channel has rejected the price at the resistance level, with the index currently trading at 21,368. If the 21,700 level is surpassed and maintained, the index could break the main channel resistance and extend its rally to 22,500. On the downside, breaking below the critical 20,695 support may invite selling pressure, potentially pulling the index down to 20,000.

Resistances: 23,117 / 24,380 / 26,200
Supports: 20,694 / 18,788 / 17,291

BRENT

Brent crude has shown mid-term recovery, regaining its previously lost channel structure. Having surpassed the 76.98 resistance level, the price is likely to rise towards the 80.00–82.00 range if it maintains this level. Key support stands at 72.37, where buyers are expected to step in to sustain the trend.

Resistances: 76.15 / 85.84 / 95.53
Supports: 70.17 / 69.00 / 67.80

EURUSD

The Euro formed a double top at 1.11 and entered a downtrend. Losing the 1.10 support led to a pullback to the lower channel boundary at 1.07. After breaking the rising support level, the Euro slid to 1.046. At this critical support level, buyers are likely to re-enter the market. However, if the support is broken, the Euro may face deeper declines, potentially reaching 1.099. Price action at these levels will be pivotal in determining the next directional move.

Resistances: 1.0575 / 1.1043 / 1.1213
Supports: 1.0180 / 0.9936 / 0.9542

XAUUSD

Gold recovered from the 2608 level and successfully reached the anticipated target. With the breakout of the descending channel resistance, gold managed to rise back above the 2710 resistance level. As long as it maintains its position above this resistance level, it is expected to sustain its upward momentum and preserve the potential to rise toward the 2756 region.

Resistances: 2757 / 2790 / 2800
Supports: 2608 / 2622 / 2590

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