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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is one of the key indicators the FED
considers when monitoring inflation. Contrary to expectations, PCE increased by
0.1% on a monthly basis instead of the expected 0.2%, indicating the FED’s
success in controlling inflation. This strengthens the expectation of a 50 basis
point rate cut instead of 25 at the November meeting. Since rising rate cut
expectations generally have a positive impact on the markets, we saw a
reflection of this when Bitcoin surged above $66,000 following the release of the
PCE data. Important upcoming data for this week includes inflation (CPI) from
the Eurozone and non-farm payrolls and unemployment data from the US.
GLOBAL MARKETS
Although Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon have raised geopolitical
concerns, expectations of an increase in oil supply have mitigated the upward
pressure on prices. In the US this week, a series of economic data, including
non-farm payrolls, which could be crucial for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed)
decision on a larger-than-usual rate cut in November, will be released. Investors
are also awaiting new announcements from Shigeru Ishiba, who was elected as
the leader of Japan’s ruling party and is almost certain to become the next prime
minister, as the Nikkei index (NI225) sharply declined by 4.1%.
OpenAI’s Transformation into a For-Profit Company
It is rare for a nonprofit organization like OpenAI to transition into a for-profit
entity with such significant capital. The company has two years to complete this
transition. OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, is seeking $6.5 billion in
investment from tech giants like Microsoft and Nvidia, as well as venture capital
firms and a fund backed by the UAE. However, one of the main demands from
investors is that OpenAI, currently a nonprofit, must become a for-profit
company aimed at benefiting society within two years. If this transformation
does not occur, investors may withdraw their funds. During this process, OpenAI
will need to comply with regulatory requirements in two different states, plan
stock distributions under a for-profit structure, and share assets with the
nonprofit. Meanwhile, the nonprofit entity will continue to exist.
DXY
The Dollar Index continues within a falling channel this week. DXY found buyers from the 100.68 support, and recoveries continue. If there are strong closures below this region, selling pressure on the index will increase. As long as DXY remains above the 100.68 support area, the momentum will be upward.
Resistance Levels: 102.26 / 103.23 / 104.02
Support Levels: 100.68 / 98.00 / 97.00
BTC/USD
The uptrend in BTCUSD continues. Following US data, it maintained its upward trend. Closures above the 64,300 level will push BTC to the 68,350 level. This area serves as a major resistance zone for BTC. Daily closures above 68,350 with high volume suggest that the trend will continue for BTC and other cryptocurrencies.
Resistance Levels: 64,290 / 66,148 / 68,350
Support Levels: 62,487 / 60,000 / 56,600
ETH/USD
ETHUSD broke its rising channel and continues to face selling pressure. It is currently priced at the 2,600 level, having lost its horizontal major support. The key support to monitor is 2,200, which is where buyers are expected to be stronger. To continue its upward trend, ETH needs to close above the major resistance level of 2,922 with strong volume.
Resistance Levels: 2,565 / 3,000 / 3,364
Support Levels: 2,200 / 1,700 / 1,052
NASDAQ
The NASDAQ100 Index continues with a bullish trend this week. NA100 has regained its channel support, and as long as it remains priced above the 19,445 resistance level, upward momentum will persist. The key support level to watch is 18,913.
Resistance Levels: 19,445 / 20,000 / 20,985
Support Levels: 18,913 / 18,500 / 18,164
BRENT
Brent oil is showing medium-term recoveries. Having regained its channel structure, Brent continues its upward trend. If it can reclaim the 76.98 area, it will likely price in the 80.00 – 82.00 range. The key support level to watch is 72.37.
Resistance Levels: 74.45 / 76.98 / 79.84
Support Levels: 72.37 / 71.00 / 70.50
EURUSD
EURUSD broke its rising channel resistance, managing to hold above both the horizontal resistance and channel resistance. It stayed above the 1.0983 resistance zone and reached our target resistance level of 1.114. After facing selling pressure and losing the 1.11 level, it saw a pullback. The key support level to monitor is 1.0983.
Resistance Levels: 1.114 / 1.130 / 1.135
Support Levels: 1.098 / 1.088 / 1.080
XAUUSD
XAUUSD broke its rising channel structure with high volume, continuing its pricing above the 2,645 resistance level. As long as it remains above this resistance, the upward trend will continue. The key support level to watch is 2,644.
Resistance Levels: 2,690 / 2,720 / 2,750
Support Levels: 2,644 / 2,585 / 2,527
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