💵 💴 💶Bullish Signals for Bitcoin: Impact of U.S. Yield Curve and Interest Rates💵 💴 💶

Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, emphasized that current economic conditions present a strong breakout opportunity for Bitcoin prices. Notably, the U.S. Treasury yield curve and new positions in derivative markets support these optimistic expectations. Kendrick highlighted that following last week’s rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, long-term borrowing costs have risen higher than short-term costs. This typically reflects optimism about future economic growth and provides a foundation for investors to turn to riskier assets such as Bitcoin. Kendrick suggested that these dynamics could support an upward movement in Bitcoin prices.He also pointed out the positive difference between the yields on U.S. Treasury’s 2-year and 10-year bonds, representing increasing investor confidence.

China Supports the Rally

Sweden’s Riksbank is expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points today. Governor Erik Thedeen and his colleagues have signaled three rate cuts by the end of the year, offering clear forward guidance to the markets. While there is modest speculation of a 50 basis point cut at one of these meetings, we believe signs of stability in the Swedish economy should deter moves larger than 25 basis points. Markets have fully priced in today’s expected 25 basis point cut, and we will likely hear a reiteration of the rate-cutting commitment for this year. As a result, SEK should remain largely sensitive to external factors since the rate-cutting cycle appears priced in, and Riksbank seems to be following a stable and predictable path. EUR/SEK may face some pressure and could test the 11.20 level in the short term.

The Bitcoin Miner War is Over: Agreement and Announcement

Initially, the SEC was expected to make a decision on September 26-27, 2024. However, this date has been postponed to November 10-11, 2024. The delay occurred under Section 19(b)(2) of the Securities Exchange Act, allowing the SEC additional time to evaluate the consequences of approving financial products. Within this scope, the SEC stated it needs more time to assess BlackRock’s ETH-based ETF, citing the need for sufficient time to evaluate the proposed rule change.

Technical Overview

DXY

The Dollar Index continues to consolidate this week. The DXY continues to recover after finding buyers at the 100.68 support level. If it closes below this region with volume, the selling pressure on the index will increase. As long as it remains above the 100.68 support region, its momentum will be upward.

Resistance levels: 102.26 / 103.23 / 104.02
Support levels: 100.68 / 98.00 / 97.00

BTC/USD

Resistance levels: 64,290 / 66,148 / 68,350
Support levels: 62,487 / 60,000 / 56,600

ETH/USD

ETHUSD has broken out of its ascending channel, continuing to experience potential selling pressure. It continues to hover around the 2,600 level, having lost its horizontal major support. The 2,200 level should be watched as a region of strong support. For the uptrend to continue on the ETH side, it needs to close with volume above the major resistance level of 2,922.

Resistance levels: 2,565 / 3,000 / 3,364
Support levels: 2,200 / 1,700 / 1,052

NASDAQ

The NASDAQ100 index continues the week with gains. After pulling back and losing its channel support, the index retreated to the 18,900 region but managed to re-enter its upward trend from the major support region. The 19,445 region stands out as the resistance level to watch.

Resistance levels: 19,445 / 20,000 / 20,985
Support levels: 18,913 / 18,500 / 18,164

BRENT

Brent oil is seeing medium-term recoveries. Having regained its lost channel structure, oil continues its upward trend. If it reclaims the 76.98 level, it could price up to the 80.00–82.00 level. The 72.37 region stands out as the support level to watch.

Resistance levels: 74.45 / 76.98 / 79.84
Support levels: 72.37 / 71.00 / 70.50

EURUSD

EURUSD has broken its ascending channel resistance and managed to price above both horizontal and channel resistance. It has remained above the 1.0983 resistance region and reached our target resistance level of 1.114. It then lost the 1.11 resistance level under selling pressure, leaving behind a deviation and pulling back. The 1.0983 level stands out as the support level to watch in EURUSD.

Resistance levels: 1.114 / 1.130 / 1.135
Support levels: 1.098 / 1.088 / 1.080

XAUUSD

XAUUSD continues to trade above the 2645 resistance level after breaking out of the rising channel structure with significant volume. As long as it remains above this current resistance, the price is expected to maintain its upward trend. We should monitor the 2644 level as a key support zone.

Resistance levels: 2690 / 2720 / 2750
Support levels: 2644 / 2585 / 2527

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